Energy supplier switching last month hit a three-year low as 453,000 changes of supplier (CoS) were completed – almost 16 percent less than July last year and the lowest July since 2018. In addition, the six-month rolling average has not hit a new high since summer 2019.

July’s CoS completed is also on target with our prediction for July’s switches completed based on data available at the time. Our analysts predicted 450,000-460,000 switches would be completed in July.

The year’s CoS count is 3.45 million so far.

CoS started in July descended to the lowest monthly total this year, with 512,000 events marking a 24 percent decrease compared to July 2020.

No bounce back in switches completed appears to be forthcoming in August. According to our EMI analysts, current averages suggest as few as 376,000 switches to be completed in August – the lowest total for an August since 2017. At most, our analysts predict 410,000 supplier changes completed in August, which is still the lowest since July 2017.

However, after Ofgem’s announcement of an increase to the default tariff price cap taking effect in October, we believe public awareness of increasing bills could result in a bump in CoS completed in September and October.

As for switching by types, switches between large suppliers and to large suppliers from other suppliers increased compared to July last year while switches between other suppliers and to other suppliers from large suppliers decreased.

  • Large to Large CoS reached 204,000 – three percent more than July 2020 and 45 percent of July 2021’s total switches completed,
  • Large to Other CoS reached 118,000 – 40 percent less than July 2020 and 26 percent of July 2021’s total switches completed,
  • Other to Large CoS landed at 72,000 – 12 more than July 2020 and 16 percent of July 2021’s total switches completed, and
  • Other to Other CoS hit 59,000 – 25 percent less than July 2020 and 13 percent of July 2021’s total switches completed.

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NOTES

The above figures relate to electricity CoS in Great Britain only.

We do not include CoS from Supplier of Last Resort (SoLR) processes or trade sales in our monthly CoS reporting. We account for only voluntary switches, or instances where the customer made an active decision and took action to change supplier.

CoS started refers to the number of valid switches started, also known as CoS raised.

All data is provided by ElectraLink’s EMI from the EMDH.

ElectraLink has been granted the governance protections to hold, transfer and analyse CoS and other data.